Taiwan investigating Chinese-linked vessel following damage to subsea cable

Event:

Taiwanese authorities are investigating a Chinese-linked ship that damaged a subsea communications cable near the island on 3 January 2025 [LINK]. The vessel Shunxing39 reportedly dragged its anchor in the area where the cable was damaged. 

Assessment:

The incident comes weeks after the seizure in the Baltic of a Russia-linked vessel suspected of damaging subsea cables by dragging its anchor [LINK]. 

The current media and political focus on the threat of sabotage is likely to bias ongoing reporting on future incidents of damage to subsea cables. Accidental damage to these cables is common, with around 150-200 instances per year [LINK]. The vast majority of these instances are not reported. However, any incident involving a vessel that can be connected to Russia or China will gain considerable attention in at least the short term. This is very likely to create the perception of a dramatic increase in the pace of such incidents. There are also very likely to be false positives where genuine accidents are identified as deliberate sabotage.

This creates an analytical challenge, since we assess that Russia and China have increased the cadence of long-running grey zone or hybrid operations targeting the US and Europe, as part of broader campaigns of pre-positioning and active disruption [LINK]. Distinguishing actual cases of sabotage from accidental damage is important to avoid amplifying the impact of adversary campaigns. 

Sabotage of subsea cables aligns with the goals of the VOLT TYPHOON campaign of cyber operations targeting infrastructure in the US [LINK]. The combination of operations involving physical damage to cables with cyber operations aimed at creating the potential for future disruption underlines the hybrid ‘cyber-physical’ nature of adversary campaigns. These are intended both to impose costs on Western states in the short term and to impede US force generation capability in the case of a militarised crisis in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Outlook:

Further incidents of damage to subsea cables are likely to be reported in the coming month, amid increased scrutiny of this issue. Distinguishing cases of likely deliberate sabotage from the expected level of disruption will require careful analysis. 

European states are trialling efforts to interdict Russian operations through law enforcement and sanctions [LINK]. However, similar efforts are unlikely with respect to China, given the latter’s role in the global economy and sensitivities around creating precedents for seizing vessels given disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea.