Seizure of Russian-linked vessel indicates shift towards active responses to hybrid threats

Event:

The Finnish authorities on 2 January began an inspection of a Russia-linked vessel suspected of deliberately dragging its anchor to sever subsea communication and power cables [LINK]. 

Assessment:

The oil tanker Eagle S was seized by Finland on 25 December in an operation involving armed units and a helicopter [LINK]. The Finnish authorities have identified seven people on the vessel as suspects in an investigation [LINK]. Credible reporting states that the vessel was carrying specialist intelligence gathering equipment [LINK].

The case highlights the challenge facing Western countries in responding to actual and suspected cases of sabotage and other forms of covert action by Russia and other adversary states. 

Historically, policy responses have focused on strengthening the security and resilience of critical infrastructure, rather than on punitive measures or countering adversary activity. However, this approach is being challenged by increasing awareness of both the level of malicious activity targeting infrastructure and of the scale of the effort that would be required to secure even ‘core’ or critical infrastructure. 

The fundamental vulnerability of subsea cables to malicious activity is a key aspect of the latter challenge [LINK]. Efforts to build fallback options in the case of damage to cables face the challenge of overcoming the exponentially greater capacity of fibre-optic cables compared to alternative communications channels [LINK, LINK]. 

Outlook:

Finland’s seizure of the Eagle S may portend a shift in Western response to such incidents, albeit one fraught with the potential for legal and diplomatic stumbling blocks [LINK]. In October 2024, the EU for the first time agreed a framework to impose sanctions over so-called hybrid threats, including election interference, sabotage, and cyber attacks [LINK]. 

While efforts to increase the security and resilience of these systems will continue, there is likely to be a pivot towards more active interventions via law enforcement and sanctions. This will provoke diplomatic counter-moves and lawfare from Russia and China, including tit-for-tat seizures of vessels and allegations of sabotage against their own infrastructure.